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critiques on the night, some voters may see Ms Gillard's warnings in this vein.
What she will categorise as a ''significant fiscal gap'' has forced a Hobson's choice on the government as it crafts the May 14 budget: either trim or delay expensive recurrent programs including the $14 billion disability insurance scheme and $6 billion school education reforms; or hand down an even larger deficit in place of what months ago, was confidently forecast to be a small surplus.
''We won't, during this time of reduced revenue, fail the future by not making the better school funding.
Her address to the Per Capita Reform Agenda Series, will outline the sharp revenue decline due to contraction of ''nominal GDP'' in which companies are continuing to produce goods and services and maintaining sales but at lower prices and thus for lower profits.
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As recently as October, Treasurer Wayne Swan was sticking to his promise, forecasting a tiny but politically significant surplus of $1.1 billion.
''Put simply, spending is controlled,'' she will say, ''but the amount of tax money coming to the government is growing much slower than expected.''
12b hole delivers bad news for Labor
''Our nation cannot afford to leave children behind or to leave our nation's future economy limping behind the pack, unable to attract the high wage, high skill jobs of the future DisabilityCare must not be jeopardised.''
In the ANZ's April 18 budget preview, the bank's economists examined a range of scenarios, tipping a deficit of $16.6 billion this year, as part of a plan to reach a $2.2 billion surplus by 2015 16. The bank said this would allow Australia to maintain its AAA credit rating, and see net debt rise only slightly to peak at 10.5 per cent of GDP in the next five years.
''Treasury now estimates that this reduction will increase to around $12 billion by the end of the financial year.''
''Those things add up to business making less profit than planned [and] that puts pressures on our stable and resilient economy,'' she will say.
Faced with a near unnavigable pre election scenario, Ms Gillard will choose the latter path, explaining that big social spending represents ''wise investments that will make us a stronger and smarter nation''.
She will explain that the shift to lower ratios of revenue appears structural a feature of the persistently high dollar, soft global environment, and increasingly competitive international markets. ''That's the big challenge for the nation in this budget and it defines the decisions the government's confronting as we put the budget together.
She will use an important economic speech in Canberra on Monday to frame the problem, setting out the revenue shortfall according to latest Treasury forecasts.
Economists have warned of a horror deficit in May, some suggesting it could be as high as $19 billion or more. However, with the pre budget period also notorious for disinformation as governments traditionally attempt to makes things seem worse than they are to get positive NY Caps Offering Online
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Declaring the challenge for Australia to be New Era 59fifty Limited Edition responding to ''the huge reductions in revenue growth over the next four years,'' Ms Gillard wants to prepare New Era San Francisco Giants
Ms Gillard will blame the deficits on the long term revenue write down from lower company profits.
The economy has stormed back to centre stage as the election nears, with both sides eager to wind in expectations and neither now prepared to predict when the national balance sheet will be back in the black. Among the arguments the Prime Minister will make in the speech is to claim the problem is not one of spending but purely a question of how much money is flowing into Canberra.
Collapsing revenue from lower company profits has blown a $12 billion hole in the federal budget this financial year, Prime Minister Julia Gillard will reveal on Monday.
''As we make those decisions let me be crystal clear about what we will and won't do.
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voters for the bad news, while laying the political groundwork for a new era of deficits extending beyond the out years of the budget.
''The bottom line for the budget bottom line is this: the amount of tax revenue the government has collected so far this financial year is already $7.5 billion less than was forecast last October.
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